Small business explainer: What’s Going On in the World in 2025? Part 2 – Trump’s US

About the Author: Ashley Thomson
Ashley Thomson

This briefing is part 2 of our 3-part series for Tenfold clients: “What is going on in the world? What does it mean for Australia, and how might it impact my business?”

In the first part, “Small business explainer: What’s Going On in the World in 2025? Part 1 – China“, I looked at 3 key issues in China, what it means for Australia, what signal to watch, and what to do as a business owner.

In Part 2 we’re looking at the incoming Trump presidency and the touted policies on tariffs and trade changes. And then in Part 3 we’ll look at Australian productivity.

As a business coach for small businesses and medium businesses, my purpose with these briefings is to give you information that is relevant and cuts out the noise, along with practical advice for how to apply these insights to your business.

I’ll summarise the key points then I’ll explain what it means for Australia, what signal to watch for and I’ll provide advice on what to do as a business owner. If you want to read more, I’ve included references at the end of this section.

Understanding World Changes in 2025 and What They Mean for Your Small Business : Part 2 – Trump’s US

A lot of the Australian media attention is focused on Donald Trump and the US. This is rightly so, because the US is one of Australia’s closest allies and Donald Trump makes good headlines. However most Australian businesses will not see much impact from the proposed changes in the US. There are a couple of reasons why:

Point 1: Australia and the US do very little trade together

While the two countries are aligned from a cultural and security perspective, we actually don’t export many good and services to each other. Australia’s three biggest exports are minerals (i.e iron ore and coal), agriculture (i.e. wheat and beef) and tertiary education. These all happen to be areas the US is strong in and therefore don’t require our exports.

Point 2: Donald Trump is a dealmaker

Trump often exaggerates his ideas to make sure he gets a better deal for the US in negotiations. While he can often seem like a loose cannon, he has a solid team of respectable professionals in his cabinet who will help to hold his more extreme ideas in check. Additionally, legislation has to pass through the US Congress and their Senate. There are lots of checks and balances in place.

Lastly, Donald Trump is about business, his number one focus will be on maintaining a strong US economy.

What do these factors in the US mean for Australia?

If anything, Trump’s policies might be positive for Australia. If he introduces tariffs to other countries, they might then look to export more to Australia, a country without tariffs. More overseas companies trying to export more to Australia will thereby reduce our prices on imported goods and our inflation level.

This could lead to slightly lower interest rates in Australia.

Signal to watch: US tariffs

Keep a watching brief on the introduction or increase of US tariffs to other countries, not just our existing trade partners but also countries that are looking to enter new markets for their imports.

Chart of US tariff increases on China exports from May 2024

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/comparing-new-and-current-u-s-tariffs-on-chinese-imports/

What we can then expect:

  • Lower prices of imported goods in Australia
  • Possibly a lowering of the inflation rate and a higher chance of more interest rate cuts

What to do as a business owner

Be aware of the country or origin of the stock, materials, parts and supplies you purchase for your business.

If the country of origin gets US tariffs imposed on them, then take the opportunity to negotiate hard based on increasing the volumes you purchase.

Real-world example of a small business using this strategy:

One Tenfold client has already implemented this with a Chinese supplier. Knowing the impending US threat of tariffs on Chinese imports, the manufacturer is keen to get ahead of things and diversify their clients away from the US market. A Tenfold client used this position to negotiate a substantial discount from the pricing they were being charged in 23/24.

Next up: Australian Productivity

  • Factors of Australia’s productivity problem
  • Things to look for in the federal election
  • Signal to watch
  • What to do as a business owner

Related articles: Part 3 – Australian Productivity | Part 1 – China

If you have any comments or questions about the information in this briefing, please contact our team.

Additional reading on the topics covered in Part 2: Trump’s US:

Cheers,
Ash

Ashley Thomson B.Eng. (Hons), Grad. Dip. Mgmt, MEI
Managing Director
Tenfold Business Coaching