The Unstoppable Forces: A 3-5 year Perspective
About the Author: Ashley Thomson
As business owners, it’s necessary for us to keep up with global and local events so we can make informed decisions in our businesses. In this briefing I want to provide some perspectives on four forces that I believe will be highly relevant for the next 3-5 years.
In 2025 we read about the threat of US tariffs on Australian businesses and strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. At the time, many people were worried that these global events could impact Australia and our businesses.
Now that we’re in early 2026 we can look back at 2025 and it’s clear that while those headline-grabbing short-term risks dominated attention in the moment, they did not ultimately have a significant impact on our businesses. Keep this in mind as we move through 2026.
However, pay attention to the longer-term forces at play that will shape the economic climate we operate in over the next 3 to 5 years.
In this briefing I’ll explain 4 longer-term forces that we need to understand and monitor:
Force 1: Government Spending will Increase
Force 2: Climate Change and the Energy Transition
Force 3: Adoption and Impact of More Advanced AI
Force 4: Geopolitical Conflicts
Force 1: Government Spending will Increase
Since the pandemic, governments and voters have become used to higher levels of government spending. Subsidies, grants, handouts and more social support programs are now seen as normal rather than temporary. In most countries, governments are spending more money than they collect in tax, which is leading to larger and larger budget deficits.
While some governments know they should rein in spending, they also know that cutting back risks angering voters and losing elections, putting them in a no-win situation.
On top of this, rising global political tensions are pushing governments to increase defence budgets, which is further extending government spending.
The coming years will see new and more government taxes introduced (for example the proposed changes to capital gains tax for housing), but this additional revenue won’t be able to keep up with government spending.
Source: https://www.pbo.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/2025-26-National-Fiscal-Outlook
Implications for Tenfold Clients:
Expect the tax you pay to generally increase, not decrease, over the coming years.
Recommended reading:
Australian Taxpayers Buried Under Government Debt: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/12/australian-taxpayers-buried-under-government-debt/
Force 2: Climate Change and the Energy Transition
Australia, along with most other countries, has committed to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Even though 1 in 3 houses now have solar panels installed, Australia has barely started down the road to transition to clean energy. The graph below shows a massive change will occur over the next 25 years that will see even greater roll out of household solar.
Add to that the adoption of household batteries, significantly more solar and wind farms, massive upgrades to power transmission lines, and conversion of households and manufacturers from gas to electricity. Then adoption of new technologies, such as; hydrogen, bioenergy, carbon capture and storage and others.
While the focus on climate change has moved backwards because of the views of the Trump administration, this force will continue to gain attention each time the world encounters a flood, a bushfire, a heat record. Climate change and the energy transition will not go away; it is a long-term force.
On top of the energy transition, we now also have the power demands from data centres required to run artificial intelligence. This is adding a whole other layer of new power required that compounds the transition.
This transition will require a huge amount of design, planning, construction along with the minerals such as copper and lithium to make it happen. The original electrification of houses and factories took around 50 to 60 years; this change will happen in the next 24 years.
Implications for Tenfold Clients:
This provides opportunities for some clients to target markets associated with the energy transition and benefit from this work. It will also act as a headwind to some clients with large energy bills, these are likely to continue increasing at a much faster pace than inflation.
Recommended viewing:
How to Make Money From the Booming Demand for Energy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UIx7UxJeqI
Force 3: Adoption and Impact of More Advanced AI
As I wrote in a previous client briefing the AI tools we use today are going to be primitive compared to what we see released over the next 5 to 10 years. See the previous briefing for some of the predictions made by the leaders developing the AI technology.
There are several implications of AI that aren’t fully understood. AI, in the form we will see in 5 years, will lead to huge productivity improvements but also comparable job losses. These productivity improvements will be positive for some companies and destroy the business models of others.
In the past we’ve seen changes that result in large-scale job losses (like the closure of Australia’s car manufacturing industry), but they have occurred in an orderly manner. And in the past as governments wound back support for the specific industry and business shutdowns occurred, employees were retrained and transitioned into new roles in new industries. This is unlikely to happen with AI advances – the changes will happen fast and they will be chaotic.
Once governments realise the scale of the unemployed issue (unemployed individuals don’t pay tax and become hostile voters) they will be forced to adopt new and radical ideas to try and combat the impact of these job losses such as taxing of robots and universal basic income.
The job losses caused by AI will result in greater polarisation of society (think about more votes for far right and far left wing politicians) and greater disparity between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’.
Implications for Tenfold Clients:
Get your business in order, listen to your coach when they discuss moving into a strong niche and progress the Big Picture plan they’re developing with you. The AI tidal wave is coming and it won’t look pretty for some businesses.
Highly Recommended Reading:
Something Big is Happening: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/something-big-happening-matt-shumer-so5he/
Force 4: Geopolitical Conflicts
The world is becoming a more selfish place as large countries look to put their needs ahead of all else. China through their industrial espionage (theft of company intellectual property) and the US with their ‘America First’ policies are less interested in a stable world and more interested in competing against each other to achieve their own financial success and national security.
Some countries will look to side with one or the other (think of Australia’s policy of aligning with the US), while other countries will look to play China and the US off against each other (India currently sides with whichever country offers them the best deal).
Global trade will decline and countries will be forced to rebuild critical industries to ensure consistent supply (Australia has decided we must have local steel making industrial capacity in case it is required for war time defence industries). As a country with lots of minerals and skills in extracting them, this provides some bargaining power for Australia when negotiating with the US and China.
Implications for Tenfold Clients:
Consider what happened to businesses in the wine and lobster industry when China imposed tariffs of up to 218% and trade restrictions on those companies. Work with your coach when they discuss strategies for bullet-proofing your business. Ensure you’re in the safer industries we recommend and not overly reliant on an exposed sector.
Recommended viewing:
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izDAOvHz5Wc
Wrapping it up:
The next few years are unlikely to be defined by the headlines that dominate the news or social media; they will be defined by these deeper structural forces quietly reshaping the industries you target and the ones you might want to target. As business owners, you don’t need to predict every twist and turn in global politics. But you do need to understand the direction of travel and position your business accordingly.
This is not the time for complacency. It is the time to strengthen your niche and reposition your business to deliberately align with the tailwinds that are building.
Some industries will experience strong demand and policy support. Others will face rising costs and shrinking margins. Work closely with your business coach, execute your Big Picture plan deliberately and make sure you are on the right side of these forces. The environment is changing whether we like it or not. The businesses that engage with their coach, who think ahead and act early will be the ones that come out stronger.
