Tenfold Client Briefing: Petrol Prices, Recession Prediction and Actions to Take Now

Many Tenfold client businesses and other SMEs are already feeling the impact of the situation in Iran, mostly through rising petrol costs. This is being driven by ongoing disruption to global oil supply, and high fuel prices are now impacting the cost base of businesses.

In this briefing I’ll provide context and explanations but the key points to understand are:

• High fuel prices are not temporary – petrol prices will stay high
• You need to plan now to protect your margins without damaging relationships – work with your coach
• Businesses that plan and are prepared for the possibility of recession are best-positioned to get through and come out stronger
• Be alert, not alarmed, and keep working on your business’ Big Picture

Petrol Price Rises

As much as the US or others would like us to think, the rising costs of petrol aren’t going to resolve quickly.

Let me explain the sequence of exactly what would need to happen for oil exports to recommence out of the Middle East and for prices to ease:

1. There would need to be a clear resolution to the conflict, either through:

• The complete destruction of Iran’s missile and drone capability, including its ability to manufacture, launch, and coordinate sustained attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping routes (extremely unlikely, estimated probability in the next 6 months = 5–10%)

OR

• A negotiated peace agreement between two ego-driven combatants US/Israel and Iran (very unlikely, estimated probability in the next 6 months = 5–10%),

And then:

2. Damaged oil production and storage facilities would need to be repaired. Once resolved, countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar would need to restart operations.

• Scenario 1: Limited damage (best case) and straightforward repairs with controlled restart of facilities and oil wells (1-2 months to return to near-normal production)
• Scenario 2: More damage (more realistic) and more complex repairs with some challenges in resuming normal operations at pre-war levels (2–6 months to return to near-normal production, with risk of longer delays if disruption continues)

And then:

3. The Strait of Hormuz would need to be cleared of sea mines and confirmed safe to allow the resumption of oil tanker traffic, and for insurers to reinstate coverage for vessels operating in the region.

The takeaway is high fuel prices are not temporary. They are likely to persist. You need to start planning for this now.

Advice to Tenfold Clients and SMEs:

Planning includes introducing a fuel surcharge where appropriate and also strategically adjusting your pricing to reflect any increases in supplier costs. These decisions need to be made deliberately and communicated clearly to your customers done poorly, they will create friction; done well, they will protect your margins without damaging relationships.

Work with your coach to plan and implement these changes in a way that fits your business.

The Australian Economy and the Chance of a Recession

On Tuesday we saw the second interest rate rise for 2026, with two more expected this year. It’s already impacting people through higher loan repayments and people will become more cautious with their spending. These rate rises are being driven by inflation that was already in the system, now made worse by the increase in petrol prices. Taken together, this materially increases the likelihood of Australia entering a recession this year.

In simple terms a recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Recessions are driven by human behaviour: when people panic, they stop spending; when spending drops, consumer-facing businesses struggle to attract customers. When that happens, costs get cut and jobs are lost, which further reduces people’s spending. It’s a self-reinforcing cycle that starts with fear and feeds on itself.

The RBA, most economists and market indicators are not forecasting a recession as the base case, but they are signalling rising risk, something to watch carefully. The analysis we’ve completed at Tenfold (with the help of AI) on how interest rate rises and sustained high petrol prices will play out is currently suggesting a 20-40% chance of a recession in the next 18 months. (See references below.)

From a Tenfold perspective, this is not unfamiliar territory. We have coached clients through both the GFC and the COVID pandemic – two very different crises. In both situations, weaker, poorly prepared businesses were forced out, while well planned and prepared businesses thrived on the other side and improved their market share.

This is exactly what our Big Picture Plans do: put you in a position to weather storms and thrive on the other side.

Advice to Tenfold Clients and SMEs:

Be alert, not alarmed. Keep engaging with your coach on developing the Big Picture Plan for your business.

We’ll continue to keep you updated as things evolve over the coming weeks and months.

References :

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/more-misery-for-aussies-as-rba-raises-rates-in-razorthin-54-split/news-story/4a3981449846a9410a1095b7569a0804

https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2026-03-17/the-cost-of-taming-inflation-could-be-crashing-the-economy/106465094