I’m here with the COVID-19 business continuity update on Friday, 26th June.
In today’s briefing:
1. Australian economy recovery roadmap
2. Updated: Self-isolation while waiting for test results
We are now half way through the JobKeeper period so it’s timely to take the pulse of the current environment. My read is that we’re seeing a kind of new normal while we’re in the support bubble. We need to look at what’s ahead in order to keep our businesses on the front foot.
I’ve plotted an outline of what has happened in the last few months, where we are now, and what we might expect in the coming months.
Source: Tenfold Business Coaching Pty Ltd
There was a big downturn in March when the severity of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear. Restrictions were announced and shares on the stock exchange took a dive. Soon after, there was some uplift when JobKeeper was announced, along with other support measures.
Since then, both the Federal government and the Victorian government announced a range of stimulus packages. Speaking to various clients and other industry contacts, I haven’t seen much of this stimulus flow through to the market as yet.
The next major point to watch for is when JobKeeper is turned off – currently slated for 28th September. When that happens, we should expect to see another dip, as businesses that had been propped up by JobKeeper can’t hold on. We may see the stock exchange take another hit through July and August as companies announce their annual results. Australia’s borders will remain closed and our economy will be $44b worse off without the spend from international visitors. We saw Qantas announce yesterday that they will be cutting 6000 jobs.
The next turning point on the road to recovery will be when the international borders re-open, which will hinge on a vaccine being widely available.
Until then I believe we can expect a slow improvement as businesses adjust to new conditions and possibly supported with further stimulus (I haven’t factored any stimulus that hasn’t already been announced into the graph above).
While it’s possible that JobKeeper could be extended for industries that have been hit hard, we can only go on the information that is known right now.
Now, the graph above shows my view of Australia’s economic performance. The key thing for small business owners is that each of you make up a tiny proportion of the economy, think 0.00005% of it. So your performance doesn’t need to reflect the economy’s if you do things a bit better than the rest of the business community. This means refining your sales and marketing to capture growing sectors of the market. It means focusing on efficiency and strategies that will improve gross profit.
I want to make it clear that not every business is doing this; some are in denial. One business owner (not a Tenfold client) told us that he was going to put his JobKeeper payments onto his mortgage and wait it out. I know his competitors – they aren’t waiting.
I know you want to be part of the uptick, so keep looking for the opportunities in the market and working with your business coach to take advantage of them.
You’ll recall the three recovery signals we’re watching: stimulus, exports, immigration. (see here for my briefing on 27th May: Recovery Signals). I’ll provide an update next week on those signals when we get the latest export figures (due Thursday).
2. Update on Victorian requirements for self-isolating while waiting for test results
Victoria is increasing its extensive testing, and with a 10-day testing blitz in targeted hotspots.
There has been an update to self-isolation rules from Victoria’s Deputy Chief Health Officer today:
“At the moment we don’t require people who have no symptoms to self-isolate until they get results but we absolutely require anybody who has symptoms to stay at home.”
Have a great weekend, I’ll have more updates next week.
Ashley Thomson B.Eng(Hons), Grad. Dip. Mgmt, MEI
Tenfold Business Coaching